Mathematical models for the prediction of temperature distributions resulting from the discharge of heated water into large bodies of water

Mathematical models for heated water outfalls were developed for three flow regions. Near the source, the subsurface discharge into a stratified ambient water issuing from a row of buoyant jets was solved with the jet interference included in the analysis. The analysis of the flow zone close to and at intermediate distances from a surface buoyant jet was developed for the two-dimensional and axisymmetric cases. Far away from the source, a passive dispersion model was solved for a two dimensional situation taking into consideration the effects of shear current and vertical changes in diffusivity. A significant result from the surface buoyant jet analysis is the ability to predict the onset and location of an internal hydraulic jump. Prediction can be made simply from the knowledge of the source Froude number and a dimensionless surface exchange coefficient. Parametric computer programs of the above models are also developed as a part of this study. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 14-12-570 under the sponsorship of the Federal Water Quality Administration.

The predicting power of models for eutrophication

Restoration of water-bodies from eutrophication has proved to be extremely difficult. Mathematical models have been used extensively to provide guidance for management decisions. The aim of this paper is to elucidate important problems of using models for predicting environmental changes. First, the necessity for a proper uncertainty assessment of the model, upon calibration, has not been widely recognized. Predictions must not be a single time trajectory; they should be a band, expressing system uncertainty and natural variability. Availability of this information may alter the decision to be taken. Second, even with well-calibrated models, there is no guarantee they will give correct projections in situations where the model is used to predict the effects of measures designed to bring the system into an entirely different ”operating point”, as is typically the case in eutrophication abatement. The concept of educated speculation is introduced to partially overcome this difficulty. Lake Veluwe is used as a case to illustrate the point. Third, as questions become more detailed, such as ”what about expected algal composition”, there is a greater probability of running into fundamental problems that are associated with predicting the behaviour of complex non-linear systems. Some of these systems show extreme initial condition sensitivity and even, perhaps, chaotic behaviour, and are therefore fundamentally unpredictable.

Modelling the dynamics of phytoplankton with the needs of the end user in mind

How to regulate phytoplankton growth in water supply reservoirs has continued to occupy managers and strategists for some fifty years or so, now, and mathematical models have always featured in their design and operational constraints. In recent years, rather more sophisticated simulation models have begun to be available and these, ideally, purport to provide the manager with improved forecasting of plankton blooms, the likely species and the sort of decision support that might permit management choices to be selected with increased confidence. This account describes the adaptation and application of one such model, PROTECH (Phytoplankton RespOnses To Environmental CHange) to the problems of plankton growth in reservoirs. This article supposes no background knowledge of the main algal types; neither does it attempt to catalogue the problems that their abundance may cause in lakes and reservoirs.

The application of methods of ecosystem analysis to the evaluation of water quality

Guided by experience and the theoretical development of hydrobiology, it can be considered that the main aim of water quality control should be the establishment of the rates of the self-purification process of water bodies which are capable of maintaining communities in a state of dynamic balance without changing the integrity of the ecosystem. Hence, general approaches in the elaboration of methods for hydrobiological control are based on the following principles: a. the balance of matter and energy in water bodies; b. the integrity of the ecosystem structure and of its separate components at all levels. Ecosystem analysis makes possible a revelation of the whole totality of factors which determine the anthropogenic evolution of a water body. This is necessary for the study of long-term changes in water bodies. The principles of ecosystem analysis of water bodies, together with the creation of their mathematical models, are important because, in future, with the transition of water demanding production into closed cycles of water supply, changes in water bodies will arise in the main through the influence of 'diffuse' pollution (from the atmosphere, with utilisation in transport etc.).

Recruitment as an evolving random process of aggregation and mortality

The dynamics of the survival of recruiting fish are analyzed as evolving random processes of aggregation and mortality. The analyses draw on recent advances in the physics of complex networks and, in particular, the scale-free degree distribution arising from growing random networks with preferential attachment of links to nodes. In this study simulations were conducted in which recruiting fish 1) were subjected to mortality by using alternative mortality encounter models and 2) aggregated according to random encounters (two schools randomly encountering one another join into a single school) or preferential attachment (the probability of a successful aggregation of two schools is proportional to the school sizes). The simulations started from either a “disaggregated” (all schools comprised a single fish) or an aggregated initial condition. Results showed the transition of the school-size distribution with preferential attachment evolving toward a scale-free school size distribution, whereas random attachment evolved toward an exponential distribution. Preferential attachment strategies performed better than random attachment strategies in terms of recruitment survival at time when mortality encounters were weighted toward schools rather than to individual fish. Mathematical models were developed whose solutions (either analytic or numerical) mimicked the simulation results. The resulting models included both Beverton-Holt and Ricker-like recruitment, which predict recruitment as a function of initial mean school size as well as initial stock size. Results suggest that school-size distributions during recruitment may provide information on recruitment processes. The models also provide a template for expanding both theoretical and empirical recruitment research.

Building climate-resilient food systems for Pacific Islands

The countries and territories of the Pacific Islands face many challenges in building the three main pillars of food security: availability, access and appropriate use of nutritious food. These challenges arise from factors including rapid population growth and urbanization, shortages of arable land for farming and the availability of cheap, low-quality foods. As a result, many are now highly dependent on imported food, and the incidence of non-communicable diseases in the region is among the highest in the world. This report summarizes: 1) the projected effects of climate change on agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific region; 2) adaptations and supporting policies needed to reduce risks to food production; 3) gaps in knowledge that must be filled in order to implement the adaptations effectively; 4) recommendations to fill these knowledge gaps.

Bioenergetics of the freshwater prosobranch Idiopoma angularis Muller in Laguna de Bay

This study was made as an attempt to investigate some of the ecological aspects of the freshwater snail Idiopoma angularis Muller in a modern framework of energy flow and mathematical models. It offers the first investigation of respiration (as related to temperature and body size), production (growth), and excretion in the prosobranch I. angularis in Laguna Lake.

Possible fish stock size assessment and available production survey as developed on Lake Kariba

This paper is an outline of methods practically useful for the evaluation of ichthyomass, fish abundance, available production and yield in lakes and rivers. Terms and concepts are reviewed, and difficulties stemming from the use of "predetermined" mathematical models are discussed. Sampling with toxicants in blocked-off areas was found to be the most practical method and is described in detail. For the total estimation of ichthyomass the spatial ranges of fish distribution must be determined; the results of echo-sounding surveys for horizontal, vertical, topographical, seasonal and diel fish distribution are given. Some of the most important methods for computing available production are listed and applied to Lake Kariba as an example. In particular, a method based on the balance between the main predator and prey species is reviewed. The ecological production survey concept is finally stressed as applied to multispecies fish stocks.